To check whether the prediction excess in the dimuon results below is due to mismodelling of the response of less pure muon categories, I reran the analysis using only CMUP soft muons.  The results are below:

TCE mu+ mu+:

#mu^{+}_{l}#mu^{+}_{l}=0.0361493

#mu^{+}_{l}#mu^{+}_{h}=0.397905

#mu^{+}_{h}#mu^{+}_{h}=3.08399

nbg=3.51804

data=1

TCE mu+ mu-:

#mu^{+}_{l}#mu^{-}_{l}=1.26696

#mu^{+}_{l}#mu^{-}_{h}=0.268673

#mu^{+}_{h}#mu^{-}_{l}=0.537769

#mu^{+}_{h}#mu^{-}_{h}=13.4515

nbg=15.5249

data=4

TCE mu- mu-:

#mu^{-}_{l}#mu^{-}_{l}=0

#mu^{-}_{l}#mu^{-}_{h}=0.536577

#mu^{-}_{h}#mu^{-}_{h}=2.40745

nbg=2.94403

data=2

CMUP mu+ mu+:

#mu^{+}_{l}#mu^{+}_{l}=0.173812

#mu^{+}_{l}#mu^{+}_{h}=0.341771

#mu^{+}_{h}#mu^{+}_{h}=1.98673

nbg=2.50231

data=0

CMUP mu+ mu-:

#mu^{+}_{l}#mu^{-}_{l}=0.862434

#mu^{+}_{l}#mu^{-}_{h}=0.316661

#mu^{+}_{h}#mu^{-}_{l}=0.258145

#mu^{+}_{h}#mu^{-}_{h}=8.18717

nbg=9.62441

data=2

CMUP mu- mu-:

mu^{-}_{l}#mu^{-}_{l}=0.0179424

#mu^{-}_{l}#mu^{-}_{h}=0.3091

#mu^{-}_{h}#mu^{-}_{h}=1.55873

nbg=1.88577

data=2

CMX mu+ mu+:

#mu^{+}_{l}#mu^{+}_{l}=0.00847829

#mu^{+}_{l}#mu^{+}_{h}=0.139921

#mu^{+}_{h}#mu^{+}_{h}=0.884786

nbg=1.03319

data=0

CMX mu+ mu-:

#mu^{+}_{l}#mu^{-}_{l}=0.406995

#mu^{+}_{l}#mu^{-}_{h}=0.270739

#mu^{+}_{h}#mu^{-}_{l}=0.198187

#mu^{+}_{h}#mu^{-}_{h}=5.45729

nbg=6.33321

data=1

CMX mu- mu-:

#mu^{-}_{l}#mu^{-}_{l}=0.0243713

#mu^{-}_{l}#mu^{-}_{h}=0.2176

#mu^{-}_{h}#mu^{-}_{h}=1.30038

nbg=1.54235

data=0

The background prediction is still high everywhere and is very high in the opposite sign.  The problem does not appear to be related to the soft muon type.