The absolutely normalized prediction for the heavy component of the single muon final state and the fit results differ widely.  Below are pTrel and d0 significance plots obtained from absolute normalization.

And here is a corresponding fit result for mu+.

The fit returns N(W+heavy)=1861 +- 65 while the absolute prediction is 897.  The reason for this may become apparent when we plot some of the absolutely normalized components below.

The Z->tau tau component has a long tail in the pTrel distribution because the jet which is being used to calculate this is random radiation.  I will try to add the Z->tau tau component to the fit and see if that changes the result.