Muon Multiplicity Distribution Using Single Soft Lepton Fit Results

After applying the extended soft muon matrices shown below and performing the pTrel/d0Sig fit, we fix the number of additional single soft muons to the results obtained from the fit and then take the absolutely normalized prediction as a systematic error for the higher multiplicity bins.  The result is shown below.

I ran a limit-setting program using the bins with N>1, taking the central value from the fit to the single lepton pTrel/d0Sig, and using the tag rate and fake rate variations as systematics. The CLs returned was 0.0714 with an expected value of 0.002. I am suspicious of this value because the Bayesian limit calculator failed using the same inputs. I have contacted the experts for advice.